by Mark (@MarkDaPackerFan)
There’s the regular season, then there’s the playoffs. It’s a different game, a different mindset. And the keys to winning in the playoffs are quite similar for most every team. Aside from making up ground in some areas, it is almost essential that you have a strong combination of most, if not all of the following: Solid line play, a productive run game, smart quarterback decision making, a reliable secondary, and the one oh so important intangible- momentum.
But what does each team have that can set them apart, or send them home? Here’s how I think they all stack up:
Chargers:
Much like the Packers, the Chargers understand that no matter how you get to the playoffs, being there is all that matters. This team is getting the shot that the Dolphins, Steelers, and Ravens are not getting. Yet it feels like any of those teams might have as good or better of a shot at getting past the first round as the Chargers do. But of course, it all depends on what Chargers team that shows up, doesn’t it? The only thing that’s been consistent about the Chargers is inconsistency, but if we can pinpoint one thing it’s that against good defenses they struggle to reach their offensive potential. Only occasionally will they get the better of a team if their opponent can’t match them point for point, much like the week 12 game against the Chiefs. But then of course, there’s the following weeks’ loss to the Bengals. Who really knows what the Chargers will do?
Peak Potential: A Win and a Loss. I think at best this team is capable of squeaking by the first round, but no matter who they face after that, I just can’t see this team having the momentum to go any further. They need a few more playmakers, and a ton more consistency.
Prediction: One and done. The Bengals beat them once this year, and by all accounts are the better team and should do it again.
Chiefs:
What a year it’s been for the Chiefs. Andy Reid turned this team immediately around and this defense is one of the best and not one you want to face right now. But the one lesson Reid didn’t learn from the past few seasons is that momentum is almost everything going into the playoffs. When was the last time resting starters in week 17 worked for a team? He better hope history has no bearing on this and his team can find their rhythm before they have to travel to Indianapolis to face a Colts team that does have momentum on their side. You also have to take into consideration the potential of Alex Smith when predicting the Chiefs’ potential. Jamaal Charles has been one of the best backs in the league this year and should continue to run well, an absolute must for winning in January. But can Smith continue to play mistake free? If it ends up resting on his shoulders to win, that might be tough for him to do.
Peak Potential: A Win and a Loss. It seems like their first matchup could go either way depending on which Colts team shows up. But after that, they would most likely meet the Broncos again. And lose again.
Prediction: One and done. I would pick the Chiefs to win their first one if they hadn’t taken a week off with their starters last week. I truly think that will bury them.
Colts:
It has been an up and down year for the Colts. But as of the past few weeks, they have managed to find some consistency and momentum going into the postseason. The loss of Reggie Wayne could have been a much bigger blow to this team than it seems to have been. And they face the Chiefs in the first round after having beaten them two weeks ago. The Colts are set up nicely right now. But we’re not likely to see the team that beat the Broncos, Seahawks, and 49ers. It’s almost like this team is riding a little under the radar with a new identity over the past few weeks. It is not one as dominant as they were at times this season, however. Right now, with a bit of a head scratching situation in the backfield and TY Hilton at WR1 they are mostly riding on the shoulder’s of Andrew Luck to will them forward. Which, while not a bad place to be, might see them run out of gas too soon.
Peak Potential: AFC Runner Ups. If they draw the cards that lead them to New England in round 2 rather than to Denver, I can see this team being stout enough, smart enough, and on enough of a win streak to beat the Patriots and make it to the title game. But they are far out matched by Denver.
Prediction: A Win and a Loss. Again, it depends on the cards they draw, but as it looks right now I see them getting passed the Chiefs again and setting up a Luck/ Manning duel in the second round. And Denver isn’t going out in their first game.
Bengals:
Ah, the Bengals. Once again in the playoffs, and once again leaving everyone wondering how far they can truly make it. This is their best shot so far. The defense is better than years past, and in fact one of the best in the AFC, and Andy Dalton has managed to find consistency. Despite their track record they are a pretty well rounded team on paper. But will we see the offense that put up 49 on the Jets’ tough defense this year? Or will we see the one that stuggled against the division rival Steelers? Can they win the close games, or end up just short in overtime like they did against the Dolphins and Ravens. It’s hard to say, because this team has never been truly convincing. They draw a nice matchup in the Chargers round 1, but can Andy Dalton be the playmaker he needs to be every game? Will the run game show up and reach it’s potential when it needs to? See, so many questions remain for this team.
Peak Potential: AFC Runner Ups. The AFC really isn’t showing me a lot this season. And while anything can happen, I think the Bengals are capable of riding their defense deep into the playoffs.
Prediction: AFC Runner Ups. Yes, I am picking the Bengals to reach what I think is their peak potential. I feel slightly hesitant as I think that this offense has the potential to fall flat on its face at any one time. But this really is a stout defense that continues to play well week in and week out. I think it can get them to the AFC title game.
Patriots:
Whatever it is that is working for the Patriots, they manage to keep doing it every week. But it makes you wonder how long they can continue to edge out the other team. There’s no substitute for experience though, and Belichick and Brady have been here, done this. They aren’t really a good team overall, but they’re really good at finding ways to nickel and dime you for yardage, and find a way to win. They adjust better than perhaps any team ever thanks to great coaching. But you can’t say this is a true 2- seed team. Nevertheless, the home field advantage works in New England, and the first crop of opponents they might face could easily be out-coached by Belichick. But you can only go so far on brains. You’ve got to have true playmakers and a solid run game to win in the postseason. Two things the Patriots lack.
Peak Potential: Super Bowl Runner Ups. Certainly this team has the potential to get past the first round. They have a lot of hands to spread the ball around to, and the defense has overperformed since the loss of Vince Wilfork. If they end up not having to face Denver, they could beat everyone else and make it to New Jersey. But I don’t see them beating any of the potential NFC winners.
Prediction: One and done. I think this is the year that Belichick just doesn’t have enough to win despite his excellent coaching mind. I see them facing a good Bengals defense that won’t give up much and will send them home in round 2.
Broncos:
It’s supposed to be defense that wins championships. Well, this year I think it will be offense that wins the championship. Denver has one of the greatest offenses in NFL history. With arguably the best quarterback in history running it. Certainly the Broncos’ defense is a big question mark. But looking at what the AFC has to offer in these playoffs, it really doesn’t look like it will matter. Peyton Manning has an incredible array of weapons to throw to, and as we have seen all season, he is using every one of them. But it isn’t just Manning that makes this team good. Players have been showing up for the Broncos in key places all year. Knowshon Moreno has been the much needed playmaker in the backfield they were missing last year. Trindon Holliday is a game changing special teams playmaker. There a lot of little ways the Broncos can beat you. On offense, that is. It seems that only the Broncos can beat themselves, and it will remain a question as to whether it will be their own defense that will lead to such a defeat.
Peak Potential: Super Bowl Champions. Obviously the sky is the limit for Denver. So the question is, will last year’s problems of conservativism and this year’s problems of sloppy play keep them from reaching their potential. Eventhough I am picking them to win it all, I truly will not be surprised to see them drop passes, fumble balls, miss opportunities and not make it all the way. But the arrow it pointing upwards.
Prediction: Even against the NFC’s toughest team. Even after having a dreaded Bye week in round 1. Even with Denver’s abillity to shoot themselves in the foot. Even with a lackluster defense supporting him, I think this is Peyton Manning’s year. I see them facing a tough Seattle team in a cold, outdoor environment. I see all the factors adding up against Peyton Manning. And I see him beating them all. This offense is too good, he is too good, and they should come out on top as champions.
